“Oh jeezaann the sun real hot today eh, it like it burning my skin, fuss it hot!”
How many times have you heard this? It may seem strange that we are complaining about the heat because Trinidad and Tobago is a Caribbean island-nation, so it’s naturally warm and sunny like any other tropical climate but recently something has changed. The days are noticeably warmer and almost unbearable at times. Is this climate change or is it all in our heads?
According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the Earth has warmed on average by 0.74 °C over the last hundred years, with 0.4 °C of this warming occurring since 1970. This is unfortunately due to global warming which can be attributed to human activities such as the burning of fossil fuels for power generation, transport, industrial processes and housing since the onset of the industrial revolution. Since 1979, human-induced global warming and climate change have been recognised as environmental problems affecting mankind and were recently acknowledged as perhaps the most pressing environmental issue of the twenty-first century. This can pose significant challenges to achieving sustainable development objectives.
But what does that mean for our beautiful Trinidad and Tobago? Is our climate changing too or are we spared because ‘God issa Trini?’ As Trinbagonians, we laughingly use this phrase to express how blessed we are in terms of natural resources and being spared from natural disasters, but that may be changing soon.
The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is an archipelagic state in the southern Caribbean, lying northeast of the South American nation of Venezuela. The country covers an area of 5,128 square kilometres (1,979 square miles) and consists of two islands, Trinidad and Tobago with Trinidad being the larger and more populous of the two main islands. The islands are relatively low lying, with the highest peak reaching 83m above sea level in Trinidad. As a nation we experience year-round warm, humid conditions associated with the Tropics, with mean temperature at around 26 °C, dropping by only a degree or so in the cooler months of December to February. The wet season occurs through June to December, during which the islands receive around 200 mm-250 mm of rainfall per month. Interannual variability in the Southern Caribbean climate is influenced strongly by the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). El Niño episodes bring warmer and drier than average conditions between June and August, and La Niña episodes bring colder and wetter conditions at this time. We also lie on the southern margins of the Atlantic Hurricane belt and normally escape the passage of cyclones and hurricanes.
Just like the rest of the world especially as a Small Island Developing State (SIDS), Trindad and Tobago is extremely vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and we have already been experiencing it. That heat we are all feeling is no mistake. Observations from meteorological data suggests that the average ambient temperature in Trinidad & Tobago increased by 0.6 °C over the period 1961-1990 at an average rate of 0.2 °C per decade, consistent with the observations of the increase of the global average over the same period. However, more recent data analysis indicates an increase of 1.7 °C over the period 1961-2008, implying an increase in the rate of warming. The mean annual temperature is projected to increase by 0.7 °C to 2.6 °C by the 2060s, and 1.1 °C to 4.3 °C by the 2090s. The range of projections by the 2090s under any scenario is around 1 °C to 2 °C. That may seem like a small increase but it takes a significant amount of energy to result in such change which is what scientists are concerned about. We have also experienced an increase in the amount of heat spells occurring on the islands with temperatures reaching as high as 35° C.
Climate change is expected to continue to increase the mean annual temperatures and increase the frequency of heatwaves both globally and in Trinidad and Tobago. This can increase the number of people at risk of heat-related medical conditions. Heat waves, i.e. prolonged periods of excessive heat, can pose a particular threat to human, animal and even plant health, resulting in loss of life, livelihoods, socioeconomic output, reduced labour productivity, rising demand for and cost of cooling options, as well as contribute to the deterioration of environmental determinants of health (e.g. air quality, soil, water supply). Heat related stress is no joke, I have fainted a few times in the summer in the USA because of excessive heat and I thought I was losing my mind in Paris when I experienced temperatures of 42° C. Heat stress can cause heat rash/heat cramps, dehydration, heat exhaustion/heat stroke and death.
Unfortunately, vulnerable groups in society such as the elderly, children and individuals with pre-existing conditions are most susceptible to these impacts.
With climate change, we are not only expected to experience an increase in temperature but changes in precipitation patterns, ocean currents, sea level rise and frequent stronger storms. Since 1960, the largest changes in rainfall have been observed in the months of June, July and August (wet season) where, on average, rainfall has decreased by 6.1 mm per month (2.6 %) per decade. Additionally, analysis of data from the Nariva Swamp for the period 1951 to 2004 revealed a decrease in cumulative rainfall, consistent with future climate projections for the region, and Trinidad and Tobago in particular. We are expected to experience a decrease in annual rainfall in Port of Spain by 14% in 2050 and by 21% in 2100. Our dry and rainy seasons are becoming more unpredictable with increased periods of drought occurring during the dry season and intense rainfall events occurring during the rainy season resulting in severe flooding. Soon enough, we will no longer be able to blame WASA for our lack of water as this would be due to the climate and its changing conditions.
There is more evidence of climate change all around us. In recent years, The Sargassum Seaweed plant has been plaguing the beaches of the east coast of the islands. The beaches are often completely covered with seaweed to the point where you can’t see the sand at all. A combination of factors have been credited for the cause of this phenomenon such as warming sea surface temperature; increased nutrient input from land-based sources via massive continental rivers such as the Amazon and Orinoco in South America and the Congo in Africa; and fertilization from iron rich Sahara dust. Changing oceanic circulation patterns subsequently transport mats of Sargassum northwards into the Caribbean basin where they break up and come ashore when influenced by local currents. There has also been evidence of coastal erosion occurring at Columbus Bay, on the southwest coast of Trinidad with noticeable changes observed at the once protruding headland at Los Gallos Point. In Icacos, and other areas along our south western coast, homes and structures, such as the lighthouse, are meters underwater. This serene beach is littered with fallen coconut trees and what was once lush agricultural land, has now been transformed into a sandy beach, as the sea continues to reclaim the land. These are just a few examples but I also want you to think about what changes you’ve observed. Maybe an increase in flooding in your area or perhaps changes in fruit bearing seasons or maybe the Saharan Dust we’ve been experiencing?
As a Small Island Developing State, (SIDS), the characteristics of Trinidad and Tobago such as our small land space, limited technical and technological capacity, restricted human capacity and susceptibility to the fluctuations of international trade and exogenous economic shocks increases our vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The specific sectors that are likely to be impacted are:
Agriculture
- Projected increases in ambient air temperature is likely to result in increased aridity of soils and decreased crop yields due to intolerance of crop varieties.
- Projected decreased precipitation is likely to result in increased aridity of soils and decreased crop yields due to less irrigation water availability.
- Projected increase in sea level is likely to result in inundation of coastal areas and salinisation of productive soils, leading to decreased crop yields and available areas for agricultural production.
- Projected increases in the incidence of invasive species, pests and diseases.
Human Health
- Projected increases in ambient air temperature are likely to result in the increased spread of vector borne diseases due to increased humidity, while also giving rise to favourable conditions for increased vector populations.
- Projected decreased precipitation is likely to result in reduced availability of potable water. Additionally, reduced rainfall will indirectly affect food availability due to inability to water crops.
- Projected increased sea level and precipitation intensity is likely to result in an increase in the incidences of water borne diseases in permanently or often flooded areas.
Human Settlements and Infrastructure
- Projected increases in intensity or heavy precipitation events along with deforestation can result in increased incidences of flooding in floodplains which can have adverse impacts on human settlements and human health. This may result in disruption of settlements, commerce, transport and towns and villages due to flooding which can add further pressures on urban and rural infrastructure and loss of property.
Coastal Zones – Climate change impacts in the coastal zone are expected to be multi-sectoral based on the fact that, in Trinidad and Tobago, settlements are concentrated within the coast and any impacts will be far reaching. The following impacts will arise largely as a result of sea level rise:
- Increased inundation, increased erosion and loss of coastline and coastal amenities such as human settlements; natural resources such as wetlands and associated ecosystem goods and services; and loss of coastal agricultural lands due to soil salinisation.
- Temperature increase: Increase in sea surface temperature will lead to loss of natural coastal defenses such as coral reefs, further leading to loss of fisheries and increased erosion and inundation as a result of increased wave energy reaching the coast.
- Ocean Acidification: Increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere dissolves in the ocean resulting in a lower seawater pH which can be detrimental to the fishery.
Water Resources- Impacts in the water resources sector are expected to arise as a result of:
- Temperature increase: Loss of available surface water as a result of increased evapotranspiration.
- Decreased precipitation: Reduced percolation and recharge of groundwater reserves in aquifers; reduced availability of surface water and potable water.
- Salt Water Intrusion: Saline water entering freshwater aquifers reducing available freshwater.
Climate Change is real, and its effects on tiny islands like Trinidad and Tobago can be phenomenal if we don’t take drastic steps now. Our economy is heavily dependent upon energy production; oil and natural gas which makes up approximately 40% of the country’s GDP and 80% of its national exports. Although T&T contributes less than 1% to global greenhouse gas emissions annually, our fossil fuel-based economy accounts for relatively high GHG emissions per capita. In light of the expected climate change impacts for Trinidad and Tobago and, taking into account its fossil fuel based economy, taking action to implement climate change mitigation policies in the country is a necessity to reduce climate change impacts and assume responsibility for the country’s GHG emissions. We can’t continue this ‘business as usual’ behaviour and mentality if we want to preserve our home. Not only will Carnival become extinct, it is quite possible that we too can become extinct, either by natural disasters, heatwaves or being completely submerged by the sea.
The Government of Trinidad and Tobago has recognised the importance of addressing climate change both from a mitigation and adaptation perspective and is committed to playing its part as a responsible member of the global community, and as a signatory to the UNFCCC (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). The government has begun to make efforts to achieve the objective of the UNFCCC, regardless of our country’s emissions on a global scale. As such, the Government has developed the policy framework for a low carbon development plan through the National Climate Change Policy, and developed a Carbon Reduction Strategy for the power generation, transportation and industrial sectors.
It is also up to us to be informed and make those environmentally conscious decisions that can help make a difference. Although the government has started taking action we need to continue to put pressure on them, demand that they take action to protect our islands and implement sustainable measures in a timely manner.
I don’t know about you but I love it here and I want my children and grandchildren to enjoy all the magnificent treasures our country has to offer. Climate change is real and happening right here on our soils.
The time to act is now!
For more information check out these documents below.
Understanding the Economics of Climate Adaptation in Trinidad & Tobago
This blog was written by: Khadija Stewart of Ecovybz Environmental Creatives https://ecovybz.blog